flop on 5 February didn't favor either Democratic player — Clinton was
still ahead with her AK to Obama's AQ. Obama spiked another queen
in the Potomac primaries, however — not because he won all three of
them by big margins and not because it gave him the lead in pledged
delegates . . . he paired his queens because for the first time he made
big inroads into Clinton's base, older white women, Latinos and
non-black lower-income voters.
If he can keep doing that in the primaries to come, his queens will
Clinton will pair her kings and take the lead if she
wins big in Ohio, Texas and Pennsylvania, getting close enough to make
a brokered convention acceptable to the party as a whole — or at least
not totally unacceptable. Clinton would be likely to win a brokered convention.
However, if Obama leads significantly in vote totals, states won and pledged
delegates after the primaries, I suspect that Clinton will take the card room manager
aside and argue that AK high beats a pair. If he rules in her
favor, the card room will riot and the Democratic party will be
finished for the foreseeable future — which might not be a bad thing
Obama represents the Democratic Party's last chance to reform itself
from within and from the bottom up. If he fails, a more radical
solution will be required — a new party altogether.